But after midday, mainly due to the fall in the New York stock market, investor confidence was frustrated, and oil prices turned down. In addition, the European debt situation is still not optimistic. After the market closed on the 18th, Moody's Investors Service also unexpectedly announced the downgrade of Spain's sovereign debt rating, which cast a shadow on the outlojp Morgan precious metals tradingok for European debt and exacerbated the decline in oil prices. (Source: Economic Information Daily)
The "Daily Economic News" reporter noted that the continuous purchase of central banks to increase reserves and the huge economic demand for gold are two important reasons for GFMS's short-term bullishness in gold. GFMS pointed out that in order to diversify foreign exchange reserves, global central banks bought 430 tons of gold last year, a four-fold increase over the same period and the highest value since 1964. According to data from the World Gold Council, the global government agencies currently have a total of 30788.9 tons of gold reserves. At the same time, it is expected that in the first half of this year, central banks will purchase about 190 tons of gold.
Indeed, although the current domestic gold price is still following the international gold price, analysts have also noticed that the influence of factors on the gold price is also increasing. Statistics show that gold production has been the world's largest for 4 consecutive years. However, with the increase in domestic gold demand, domestic supply can no longer meet the national gold consumption demand. Last year, imported gold accounted for nearly 30% of the total supply. More. With such a large production demand and the continuous increase of investors, the influence of factors on the market will naturally gradually increase. Liu Yuning said.
First Financial Newsletter The US non-agricultural employment report in May was very bleak, which seemed to give gold a chance to resurrect. Under the influence of many factors last week, the international gold price jumped sharply, and finally closed with a slight increase. This has been the gold price for four consecutive weeks, basically recovering the sharp drop in early May. Last week, the highest gold price was US$1550.2/ounce, the lowest was US$1519.3/ounce, with a shock amplitude of US$30.9/ounce, and closing at US$1541.8/ounce, an increase of US$5.8/ounce or 0.38% from the previous week. For this week's trend, analysts are generally bullish, but the turbulence will not end, and the operation is mainly short-term.
At the end of July, the world's largest gold ETFSPDRGoldTrust began to increase its holdings. Following the substantial increase of 18.17 tons of gold on July 28, it increased its holdings again by 18.17 tons on August 2. In just one week, the gold ETF increased its positions. Up to 40 tons. Statistics show that as of August 12, SPDRGoldTrust has added a total of 56.26 tons of warehouses in July, while Masukura still had 9.31 tons in August. The continued substantial Masukura shows that institutions are firmly bullish on the gold market outlook. At the same time, central banks of various countries have also joined the team to grab gold. Recently, South Korea disclosed that it has purchased 25 tons of gold, and its gold reserves have reached 39.4 tons. This is the first time South Korea has increased its gold holdings in 13 years. At the same time, Mexico bought nearly 100 tons of gold in the first quarter of this year. According to IMF statistics, Thailand’s gold reserves increased by 18.66 tons in June, bringing the total to 127.524 tons. In addition, Russia has also been an important buyer of gold in the past two years.
In addition, the European debt crisis has not been alleviated, but it is getting worse. German Chancellor Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy both stated at the German-French summit that the launch of the euro zone joint bond will not help solve thejp Morgan precious metals trading crisis, and there is no need to expand the size of the euro zone rescue fund. Jiao Yu, an analyst at the Hengtai Chase Gold Industry Development and Research Center, believes that the German-French summit failed to achieve substantive results, the market has questioned the ability of the euro area countries to solve the debt crisis, and market confidence has been shaken.
Commerzbank (Commerzbank) pointed out that from the technical picture, gold may be further sold, and may fall below the 1500 level in the short term. Such a strong selling may come from the futures market. CFTC data shows that speculators are beginning to cut their net long positions in gold. However, mid- and long-term investors are still holding on tight, and gold ETFs have not shown signs of outflow, and bargain hunting may soon enter the market to buy bottom.